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Overview Financial crime has become a major national security threat, driven by globalization, technological change, and increasingly sophisticated criminal networks. Illicit finance—estimated at more than $3.1 trillion globally—enables transnational criminal organizations, terrorist groups, and hostile states to evade sanctions, fund weapons programs, and undermine traditional tools of economic statecraft. As…

Overview Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) have evolved from compliance obligations into critical national security imperatives. Illicit finance destabilizes economies, enables terrorism, empowers authoritarian regimes, and threatens global security. As financial crime grows more complex – fueled by transnational organized crime (TCOs), digital assets, and…

Introduction Since the announcement of tariffs, the stock market has been notably volatile. However, the fixed income markets—particularly corporate notes and bonds—have received comparatively less attention. The graph below illustrates the spreads over the 10-year Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT) for bonds rated Aaa and Baa by Moody’s, dating back to…

Introduction Since 2008, much has changed in regard to how the Fed manages monetary policy/interest rates. We might even say “what a long, strange trip it’s been.” Moving into 2025 with the Trump administration, I think that phrase will still hold! In 2015, I wrote an article titled “The Federal…

Introduction Tariffs have certainly dominated the economic news cycle of late. The foregone conclusion by pundits is that they will raise prices for consumers. However, we are currently in a disinflationary environment regardless of what inflation index you look at. Having said that, inflation seems to have bottomed out in…

Introduction In the opening scene of Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark, Indy trespasses into a sacred temple to retrieve a golden idol statuette. The viewer is led to believe that this ancient artifact has existed for quite some time. It is no surprise that it is…

Introduction Rob McDonough and I coauthored an article in April of 2023 concerning Silicon Valley Bank (https://www.gfmi.com/articles/silicon-valley-bank-interest-rate-and-liquidity-risk-within-asset-liability-management/), their interest rate and liquidity policies, and the reasons for their demise. What has changed since the March banking crisis? Let’s take a look at the current interest rate environment, what challenges may…

Introduction Politicians and pundits have been casting blame and pointing fingers at a variety of sources that contributed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which also resulted in contagion at other financial institutions with similar balance sheet structures. Rather than point blame, it seems like a better idea…

Introduction The late J. Carter Beese Jr., former SEC commissioner, gave a speech in 1993 where he famously said, “Nothing good ever happens to a trade between trade date and settlement date.” Incorporating a riff on Murphy’s Law as it applies to the Lifecycle of Trade (“What can go wrong,…

Overview Municipal securities are an important part of the fixed-income market. While small at $4.2 trillion compared with the U.S. bond market at $52.9 trillion, municipal bonds are a critical financing vehicle for cities, towns, and states. The lion’s share of the municipal financings is for large, long-lived assets such…

Trends in Sustainable Security Issuance The number and total size of new issuance deals in the sustainable (or ESG, or Impact) security space has been consistently growing over the past decade around the globe. Even the COVID pandemic was not sufficient to diminish the need for new capital to fund…

Introduction Lots have been written lately about stagflation. Since I have written an article on “Inflation” (https://www.gfmi.com/articles/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-inflation-but-were-afraid-to-ask/) and a blog on “Predicting Recessions” (https://www.gfmi.com/the-long-and-short-predicting-recessions/), I thought I would combine them with an update using today’s economic variables. This article assumes you have read both the prior inflation article and the…