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For decades, national defense was measured by military strength and geographic borders. Today, the battlefield has expanded into cyberspace, where financial institutions, critical infrastructure, and digital networks have become strategic targets. As cyber threats evolve, the financial services industry is no longer simply protecting customer assets; it is helping safeguard…

Introduction Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting might best be summarized by David Bowies iconic lyrics “Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes,” though I am pretty certain Bowie wasn’t referring to the Fed! The meeting marked one of the most significant shifts in Federal Reserve communications and monetary policy strategy since the Global Financial Crisis. Beyond…

Introduction Modern warfare is no longer limited to traditional battlefields. In today’s interconnected digital economy, financial systems, digital assets, artificial intelligence (AI), and global trade networks have become powerful tools used by hostile states, terrorist organizations, and criminal enterprises. These evolving threats represent what many experts now describe as the…

Overview Financial crime has become a major national security threat, driven by globalization, technological change, and increasingly sophisticated criminal networks. Illicit finance—estimated at more than $3.1 trillion globally—enables transnational criminal organizations, terrorist groups, and hostile states to evade sanctions, fund weapons programs, and undermine traditional tools of economic statecraft. As…

Overview Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) have evolved from compliance obligations into critical national security imperatives. Illicit finance destabilizes economies, enables terrorism, empowers authoritarian regimes, and threatens global security. As financial crime grows more complex – fueled by transnational organized crime (TCOs), digital assets, and…

Introduction Since the announcement of tariffs, the stock market has been notably volatile. However, the fixed income markets—particularly corporate notes and bonds—have received comparatively less attention. The graph below illustrates the spreads over the 10-year Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT) for bonds rated Aaa and Baa by Moody’s, dating back to…

Introduction Since 2008, much has changed in regard to how the Fed manages monetary policy/interest rates. We might even say “what a long, strange trip it’s been.” Moving into 2025 with the Trump administration, I think that phrase will still hold! In 2015, I wrote an article titled “The Federal…

Introduction Tariffs have certainly dominated the economic news cycle of late. The foregone conclusion by pundits is that they will raise prices for consumers. However, we are currently in a disinflationary environment regardless of what inflation index you look at. Having said that, inflation seems to have bottomed out in…

Introduction In the opening scene of Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark, Indy trespasses into a sacred temple to retrieve a golden idol statuette. The viewer is led to believe that this ancient artifact has existed for quite some time. It is no surprise that it is…

Introduction Rob McDonough and I coauthored an article in April of 2023 concerning Silicon Valley Bank (https://www.gfmi.com/articles/silicon-valley-bank-interest-rate-and-liquidity-risk-within-asset-liability-management/), their interest rate and liquidity policies, and the reasons for their demise. What has changed since the March banking crisis? Let’s take a look at the current interest rate environment, what challenges may…

Introduction Politicians and pundits have been casting blame and pointing fingers at a variety of sources that contributed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which also resulted in contagion at other financial institutions with similar balance sheet structures. Rather than point blame, it seems like a better idea…

Introduction The late J. Carter Beese Jr., former SEC commissioner, gave a speech in 1993 where he famously said, “Nothing good ever happens to a trade between trade date and settlement date.” Incorporating a riff on Murphy’s Law as it applies to the Lifecycle of Trade (“What can go wrong,…