Gold, Bitcoin/Digital Gold, and Fiat Currencies

Introduction In the opening scene of Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark, Indy trespasses into a sacred temple to retrieve a golden idol statuette. The viewer is led to believe that this ancient artifact has existed for quite some time. It is no surprise that it is made of gold as, historically, […]

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Is the Fed Easing or Tightening? A Closer Look at Quantitative Tightening

Looks like the long-awaited move to lower interest rates may have to wait a few more months. Last Sunday night on 60 Minutes, Chair Powell indicated the Fed will be waiting to pull the trigger on lowering rates. His message was that the Fed thinks the economy is in a good place and they think […]

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October Scaries: Where are We Six Months After the Banking Crisis and What Might Happen Tomorrow… Boo!

Introduction Rob McDonough and I coauthored an article in April of 2023 concerning Silicon Valley Bank (, their interest rate and liquidity policies, and the reasons for their demise. What has changed since the March banking crisis? Let’s take a look at the current interest rate environment, what challenges may be looming during this scariest […]

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Silicon Valley Bank: Interest Rate and Liquidity Risk within Asset Liability Management

Introduction Politicians and pundits have been casting blame and pointing fingers at a variety of sources that contributed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which also resulted in contagion at other financial institutions with similar balance sheet structures. Rather than point blame, it seems like a better idea to examine the way that […]

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Stress in the U.S. Treasury Market

“When financial markets come under pressure, vital functions such as the efficient allocation of capital and price formation become impaired.” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2022 Recently, there have been various signs of stress in the U.S. Treasury market. Coincidentally, there were two recent reports released by regulators discussing the Treasury market. The first is the […]

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Stagflation,Concerns, ,Stagnant,Economy,,Unemployment,,High,Energy,Prices,And

Inflation + Recession = Stagflation

What is “stagflation”? It’s when prices for goods and services are increasing while the economy is not growing. Are we headed towards it? Well, by any measure, inflation is a problem. For example, take a look at the consumer price index (CPI) going back to the early ‘70s: Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer […]

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The Long and Short: Inflation + Recession = Stagflation

Introduction Lots have been written lately about stagflation. Since I have written an article on “Inflation” ( and a blog on “Predicting Recessions” (, I thought I would combine them with an update using today’s economic variables. This article assumes you have read both the prior inflation article and the blog – or have a […]

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Offshoring, Outsourcing, Onshoring, Supply Chain, and Baby Formula

Introduction First, we had, and still have, supply chain issues. These challenges have led to shortages of goods and the inevitable consequences of shortages – price increases. Sourcing products from overseas has been a decades long movement commonly referred to as globalization. Specifically, companies have offshored their production, i.e., they moved their operations overseas to […]

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Interest Rate Hedging and the Impact on Interest Rates

Introduction Economic fundamentals, supply chain issues, and energy prices have all contributed to interest rates moving higher. The Fed started raising rates in March of this year to combat the rise in inflation. The 10-year US. Treasury started the year around 1.53%, and at this writing is at 3.35%. (Note the TNX is a CBOE […]

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Cryptocurrency Derivatives: Cryptocurrency Perpetual Contracts

Introduction The rock band YES has a song called “Perpetual Change.” Capital markets resemble the title of the song as they are known for innovation and continually adapting to market changes. (And how apropos to have an adjective in our eNews article and a rock and roll song!) Cryptocurrencies and their derivatives are perfect examples […]

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Cryptocurrency Derivatives: Chicago Mercantile Exchange Cryptocurrency Futures

Introduction Cryptocurrency derivatives now make up the majority of the cryptocurrency market. I will be writing a series of articles/blogs on the spot and derivatives markets. This first article will address the cryptocurrency futures markets and, in particular, will give an overview of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) contracts. Cryptocurrency futures have various features: Regulated […]

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The Federal Reserve’s Tools to Manage Monetary Policy

Since 2008, much has changed in regards to how the Fed manages monetary policy/interest rates. We might even say “what a long strange trip it’s been.” A lot has transpired since the credit crisis in 2008, up to and including the 2020 COVID outbreak. In 2015, I wrote an article titled “The Federal Reserve Tools: […]

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