Ken Kapner

Introduction First, we had, and still have, supply chain issues. These challenges have led to shortages of goods and the inevitable consequences of shortages – price increases. Sourcing products from overseas has been a decades long movement commonly referred to as globalization. Specifically, companies have offshored their production, i.e., they moved their operations overseas to […]

Introduction Economic fundamentals, supply chain issues, and energy prices have all contributed to interest rates moving higher. The Fed started raising rates in March of this year to combat the rise in inflation. The 10-year US. Treasury started the year around 1.53%, and at this writing is at 3.35%. (Note the TNX is a CBOE […]

Introduction The rock band YES has a song called “Perpetual Change.” Capital markets resemble the title of the song as they are known for innovation and continually adapting to market changes. (And how apropos to have an adjective in our eNews article and a rock and roll song!) Cryptocurrencies and their derivatives are perfect examples […]

Introduction Cryptocurrency derivatives now make up the majority of the cryptocurrency market. I will be writing a series of articles/blogs on the spot and derivatives markets. This first article will address the cryptocurrency futures markets and, in particular, will give an overview of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) contracts. Cryptocurrency futures have various features: Regulated […]

Since 2008, much has changed in regards to how the Fed manages monetary policy/interest rates. We might even say “what a long strange trip it’s been.” A lot has transpired since the credit crisis in 2008, up to and including the 2020 COVID outbreak. In 2015, I wrote an article titled “The Federal Reserve Tools: […]

Inflation The press is abuzz with inflation news. Since the great recession, inflation has been extremely low, primarily registering below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Recently though, inflation has increased above the Fed’s target with the Consumer Price Index coming in at over 5% for two straight months. The Fed has indicated that they […]

The Evolution of Student Loans The new administration and the hyperbole around socialism has led many pundits to discuss the student loans that are on the U.S. Government’s balance sheet. There are currently over $1.5 trillion of student loans outstanding. These loans can be categorized as either government backed/originated or private student loans. This article looks […]

In July 2020, GFMI delivered a virtual seminar on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). One of the questions posed to the audience was “Does too much money in the financial system, as measured by the monetary base, M1 or M2, cause inflation?” Nearly 70% of the respondents believed it did. This perspective aligns with the more […]

Over the last year, there has been a lot pf press regarding negative yield curves and the ability of an inverted curve to predict a recession. There are other indicators that market practitioners use to foretell a recession, such as the ISM purchasing managers’ report and consumer sentiment. Now there is a new kid on […]

Negative convexity is a feature often found in callable bonds and mortgage backed securities. For this blog, the focus will be on agency MBS. Its source is the embedded option that allows for prepayment of principal prior to final maturity. This blog will examine negative convexity, how portfolio managers can hedge the risk associated with […]

The Capital Markets are part of the global financial system that brings together investors and borrowers. Technically, the word capital implies a longer term, but the timing of when “short-term” actually becomes “long-term” has become a bit of a gray area. Generally speaking, short-term refers to money markets, or for a text book definition, less […]

There were a lot of reasons for the 2008 credit crisis. Some of these included poor underwriting on personal mortgage loans, investors not doing their due diligence on investments, individuals lying on their mortgage applications, and government interference, to name just a few. Another cause resulted from credit rating agencies giving Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) […]